نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• محمدجواد زارع بهنمیری ¹
• محمد حسن ملکی ²
• امیرعباس سالمی ³

¹ دانشیار، گروه حسابداری، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران.

² استاد، گروه مدیریت، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران.

³ دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، گروه حسابداری، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه قم، قم، ایران.

چکیده

پیشینه و اهداف: در دهه‌های اخیر، با گسترش صنعت تکافل در کشورهای اسلامی، نیاز به توسعة چهارچوب‌های حسابداری منطبق با مبانی شریعت بیش از پیش احساس می‌شود. ورود تکافل به صنعت بیمة ایران و چالش‌های حسابداری آن، ضرورت انجام پژوهشی جامع در این زمینه را آشکار ساخته است. این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی و تحلیل پیشران‌های اصلی مؤثر بر آیندة حسابداری تکافل در ایران انجام شده است.
روش‌شناسی: این پژوهش از نظر جهت‌گیری کاربردی و از منظر روش‌شناسی آمیخته است و داده‌ها از طریق ابزارهای میدانی گردآوری شده‌اند. جامعة آماری پژوهش شامل ۱۵ خبره در حوزه‌های حسابداری، بیمه و تکافل است که به‌صورت قضاوتی انتخاب شدند.
پژوهش طی سال‌های ۱۴۰۳ و ۱۴۰۴ در چهار مرحله اجرا شد: مرحلة اول، استخراج پیشران‌های مؤثر از طریق مرور ادبیات؛ مرحلة دوم، غربال پیشران‌ها با استفاده از پرسش‌نامة خبره‌سنجی و روش دلفی فازی؛ مرحلة سوم، اولویت‌بندی پیشران‌های غربال‌شده با استفاده از پرسش‌نامة اولویت‌سنجی و روش مارکوس؛ و مرحلة چهارم، تدوین سناریوهای باورپذیر آیندة حسابداری تکافل در ایران با ابزار مصاحبه با گروه‌های کانونی.
یافته‌ها: از میان 25 پیشران استخراج‌شده از طریق مرور ادبیات، که در پنج بخش اصلی پیشران‌های اجتماعی فرهنگی، پیشران‌های فنّاورانه، پیشران‌های نظارتی، پیشران‌های مربوط به بازار و پیشران‌های اقتصادی طبقه‌بندی شدند، 17 پیشران با استفاده از روش دلفی فازی حذف شدند و 8 پیشران باقی ماندند و با استفاده از روش مارکوس اولویت‌بندی شدند که براساس نتایج روش مارکوس، دو پیشران رقابت تکافل با بیمه‌های مرسوم و توسعة فرهنگ مالی اسلامی بیشترین تأثیر را بر آیندة حسابداری تکافل دارند. براساس این دو پیشران و حالت‌های متضاد آن‌ها، چهار سناریوی باورپذیر برای آیندة حسابداری تکافل در ایران ترسیم شد.
نتیجه‌گیری: به سیاست‌گذاران و شرکت‌های بیمه توصیه می‌شود با اتخاذ رویکردی جامع در پنج محور «حمایت قانونی و نظارتی»، «توسعة خدمات و محصولات»، «فرهنگ‌سازی و آموزش»، «نوآوری فنّاورانه و تحول دیجیتال» و «زیرساخت‌های مالی اسلامی»، زمینه را برای توسعة پایدار و رقابتی تکافل در ایران فراهم سازند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• آینده‌پژوهی
• پیشران
• تحلیل سناریو
• تکافل
• حسابداری
• حسابداری اسلامی
• دلفی فازی

موضوعات

• آینده‌پژوهی در صنعت بیمه

عنوان مقاله [English]

Futures Studies of Takaful Accounting in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

• Mohammad Javad Zare Bahnamiri ¹
• Mohammad Hasan Maleki ²
• Amirabbas Salemi ³

¹ Associate Professor, Department of Accounting, Faculty of Economic Sciences and Administration, Qom University, Qom, Iran.

² Professor, Department of Management, Faculty of Economic Sciences and Administration, Qom University, Qom, Iran.

³ Master’s Student, Accounting, Faculty of Economic Sciences and Administration, Qom University, Qom, Iran.

چکیده [English]

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In recent decades, the Takaful industry has experienced a rapid growth in Islamic countries as a Shariah-compliant alternative to conventional and Western insurance. With the increasing demand for transparency and compliance with Shariah principles, the need for specialized accounting frameworks for this industry has become prominent. The introduction of Takaful into Iran’s formal insurance system has created multiple challenges in the areas of recognition, measurement, and financial disclosure, necessitating a future-oriented approach. The primary objective of this research is to identify and analyze the key driving forces shaping the future of Takaful accounting in Iran, to prioritize these drivers, and to develop plausible scenarios for this future. Accordingly, the findings of this study can provide a scientific and policy-oriented roadmap for insurance companies, regulators, and professionals.
METHODS: This research is applied in terms of purpose and adopts a mixed-methods approach in terms of methodology. To achieve the research objectives, a combination of two quantitative methods—the Fuzzy Delphi Method and the MARCOS multi-criteria decision-making method was depolyed. The number of experts participating in this study was 15, considered appropriate and acceptable for judgment-based and expert-centered methods. The expert evaluation questionnaire was developed based on a literature review, and to assess its validity, the Content Validity Ratio (CVR) and Content Validity Index (CVI) of Lawshe were applied. The research process was conducted during 2024–2025. This study was conducted in four stages. In the first stage, the drivers influencing the future of Takaful accounting were identified through a literature review. In the second stage, expert evaluation questionnaires were distributed among selected experts to screen the identified drivers using the Fuzzy Delphi Method. In the third stage, the key drivers affecting the future of Takaful accounting in Iran were prioritized to extract the final drivers via the MARCOS multi-criteria decision-making method. In the fourth stage, the plausible Takaful accounting scenarios in Iran were mapped using the final drivers, with focus group interviews as the primary tool.
FINDINGS: In the first stage, an initial list of drivers influencing the future of Takaful accounting in Iran was prepared through a review of previous studies. In this stage, 25 drivers were identified and classified into five main categories: socio-cultural, technological, regulatory, market-related, and economic drivers. In the second stage, the Fuzzy Delphi Method was employed to screen these drivers and identify the key ones. For this purpose, a questionnaire was designed and distributed among a group of experts. As a result of this process, 17 drivers were excluded due to not meeting the required criteria, and 8 drivers were selected for final ranking. The Content Validity Ratio (CVR) and Content Validity Index (CVI) of Lawshe were calculated for the drivers in this study, confirming that all retained drivers possessed acceptable validity. In the next stage, these 8 drivers were further evaluated using the MARCOS method to rank and prioritize them based on multiple criteria. According to the scores, the drivers “competitiveness of Takaful against conventional insurance” and “development of Islamic financial culture” received the highest priority. In the final stage, future scenarios for Takaful accounting were developed based on these two high-priority drivers and focus group interviews. Each driver consisted of two contrasting states. The contrasting states for the first driver are: low competitiveness of Takaful against conventional insurance versus high competitiveness of Takaful against conventional insurance. The second driver also has two contrasting states, which are: significant development of Islamic financial culture versus weak development of Islamic financial culture. Overall, four plausible future scenarios for Takaful accounting in Iran were derived, reflecting different combinations of these two drivers, including significant development of Islamic financial culture alongside low competitiveness of Takaful, significant development of Islamic financial culture alongside high competitiveness of Takaful, weak development of Islamic financial culture alongside low competitiveness of Takaful, and weak development of Islamic financial culture alongside high competitiveness of Takaful.
CONCLUSION: Considering the four plausible scenarios for the future of Takaful accounting in Iran, it is essential for policymakers and insurance companies to adopt a set of coordinated measures to enable the sustainable and competitive development of Takaful. These measures should contribute both to the expansion of Islamic financial culture and to strengthening the competitiveness of Takaful against conventional insurance. The following recommendations are structured around five key areas. Key areas for action include establishing a legal and regulatory framework for the formation of Takaful companies, providing tax incentives, formulating Shariah-based regulations, and creating specialized regulatory bodies to enhance transparency and accountability; developing diverse, simple, and competitive insurance products tailored to societal needs while standardizing schemes to increase trust; conducting public awareness campaigns, promoting Islamic financial culture, and training specialized human resources; utilizing artificial intelligence, blockchain, and data analytics to improve processes, transparency, and efficiency; and expanding Takaful reinsurance, establishing Shariah-compliant guarantee funds, and employing Islamic financial instruments within company structures.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Accounting
• Driver
• Futures studies
• Fuzzy delphi
• Islamic accounting
• Scenario analysis
• Takaful