نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

• محمود شیرجزی ¹
• مصطفی رجبی ²

¹ دانشجوی دکتری، گروه اقتصاد سلامت، گروه مدیریت و اقتصاد، واحد خمینی شهر، دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران

² استادیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت،واحد خمینی شهر، دانشگاه ازاد اسلامی، اصفهان، ایران

چکیده

پیشینه و اهداف: یکی از ویژگی‌های کشورهای در حال توسعه محدودیت منابع بخصوص منابع ارزی می‌باشد. این کشورها با توجه ساختار تولیدی و مشکل محدودیت ارزی، نیازمند اتخاذ سیاست‌های درست نرخ ارز جهت کاهش نوسانات نرخ ارز و کاهش اثرات منفی آن بر اقتصاد می‌باشند. در ایران شرایط اقتصادی و تحریم‌ها نوسانات شدیدی را در نرخ ارز در دهه اخیر بر اقتصاد ایران تحمیل نموده است. از طرفی شرکت‌های بیمه‌ای به لحاظ نوع خدماتی که ارائه می‌نمایند و عضو بورس نیز می‌باشند، از چند جهت تحت تأثیر نوسانات نرخ ارز می‌باشند. این مطالعه به دنبال پاسخ دقیق به این سوال است: تاثیر نوسانات نرخ ارز بر سودآوری شرکت‌های بیمه‌ای که بخصوص عضو بورس اوراق بهادار ایران هستند به چه صورتی است. همچنین از آنجایی که شرکت‌های بیمه به طور کلی و همچنین شرکت‌هایی که عضو بورس اوراق بهادار می‌باشند، با توجه به نوع خدمات در گستره وسیع و همچنین سرمایه‌گذاری آنها در بورس تحت تأثیر این نوسانات در جهت درآمدی و هزینه‌ای قرار می‌گیرند، بررسی و تجزیه و تحلیل اثر این نوسانات بر عملکرد این شرکت‌ها که خروجی آن سودآوری می‌باشد بسیار مهم بوده و ضرورت دارد براین اساس تحلیل اثر نوسانات نرخ ارز بر سودآوری 14 شرکت بیمه‌ای عضو بورس اوراق بهادار در دوره زمانی 1402- 1390در نظر گرفته شد.
روش‌شناسی: : این تحقیق از نظر روش پژوهشی دارای ماهیت و محتوای همبستگی-توصیفی و از نوع کاربردی می‌باشد. داده‌های ثانویه از صورت‌های مالی شرکت‌های بیمه پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار استخراج ‌و اقدام به تحلیل همبستگی شد. روش استدلالی آن نیز استدلال قیاسی استقرایی است. همچنین بدلیل استفاده از داده‌ها و آمارهای مربوط به گذشته متغیرها، این مطالعه از نوع پس رویدادی است. ماهیت داده‌ها به لحاظ ساختاری از نوع داده‌های ترکیبی و با توجه به روش‌های مختلف این‌گونه داده‌ها تحلیلی علّی و تابلویی می‌باشد پس از انجام آزمون‌های مرتبط، مدل تحقیق از روش اثرات تصادفی برآورد گردید. تحلیل داده‌ها با نرم افزار اویوز انجام شد. جامعه آماری پژوهش نیز دربرگیرنده شرکت‌های بیمه‌ای پذیرفته ‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران بود و برای انتخاب نمونه آماری این تحقیق از روش نمونه‌گیری حذفی سیستماتیک (غربالگری) استفاده‌ شد.
یافته‌ها: یافته‌ها نشان داد که نوسانات نرخ ارز تاثیر منفی و معنی‌داری بر سودآوری شرکت‌های بیمه‌ای با توجه به نوع فعالیت آنها دارد. همچنین متغیرکلان اقتصادی مانند تورم و رشد اقتصای تاثیر مثبت و معنی‌دار و متغیرهای درونی شرکت مانند نسبت سرمایه به دارایی و نسبت بدهی به دارایی و اندازه شرکت نیز تاثیر مثبت و معنی‌داری بر سودآوری شرکت‌ها داشته است و همه فرضیات تحقیق مورد تایید قرار گرفت.
نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج نشان می‌دهد که اتحاذ سیاست‌های مناسب ارزی جهت کاهش نوسانات ارز می‌تواند بر عملکرد شرکت‌های بیمه‌ای اثر افزایشی داشته باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• "سودآوری"
• "شرکت‌های بیمه‌ای"
• "نوسانات نرخ ارز"
• "بورس اوراق بهادار"."ایران"

موضوعات

• ارزیابی خسارت در رشته های بیمه

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Profitability of Insurance Companies that are Members of the Stock Exchange in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

• MAHMOUD Shirjazi ¹
• mostafa rajabi ²

¹ , Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Khomeinishahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran

² Department Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Khomeinishahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran

چکیده [English]

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: A characteristic of developing countries is resource constraints, particularly foreign exchange resources. Given their production structure and foreign exchange constraints, these countries require appropriate exchange rate policies to mitigate exchange rate volatility and its adverse economic effects. In Iran, economic conditions and sanctions have imposed severe exchange rate fluctuations on the economy in the past decade. Meanwhile, insurance companies, due to the nature of their services and their status as listed entities, are affected by exchange rate fluctuations in multiple dimensions. The insurance sector plays a fundamental role in economic growth, resource allocation, liquidity creation, economies of scale in investments, and loss distribution. The insurance industry is a key indicator of development, especially financial market development, and a major economic institution that supports the activities of other entities. With its extensive human resources and a broad network of branches, agencies, and other insurance units, it holds a significant role in countries' economic development. Indeed, the insurance industry is a subsector of the financial market with broad spillover effects on other markets and should guarantee the health of financial markets and economic activities (Crabbe, 2012). Therefore, this research aims to analyze the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the profitability of 14 insurance companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period 2011-2023.Existing limited research presents conflicting results regarding the effect of exchange rate volatility on corporate profitability, with some researchers finding a significant positive effect and others a significant negative effect. This indicates a lack of consistent evidence, particularly within the insurance industry, on the relationship between exchange rate volatility and profitability. Amoabeng and Yohane (2025), in a study on "The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Financial Performance of Insurance Companies in Zambia," found that while most respondents reported profitability growth over the past five years, exchange rate volatility was perceived as a factor with a moderate impact on financial performance, though 34% considered its impact very significant. Affected areas included profit margins, operational costs, and claim payments. Ramal (2023) examined "The Performance Index of Pakistan's Insurance Industry in Exchange Rate Fluctuations," finding that currency depreciation and other factors arising from exchange rate fluctuations have a primary impact on profitability, and that exchange rate volatility and profitability are inversely related in the top Pakistani insurance companies studied.
Given that Iran's insurance industry also experiences these diverse effects created by foreign exchange fluctuations—while reports show an increasing trend in insurance company profits over the past decade, they do not clearly indicate whether exchange rate volatility has contributed to these profits—this study seeks to provide a precise answer to the question: What is the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the profitability of insurance companies, particularly those listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange? Furthermore, as insurance companies in general, and listed ones in particular, are affected by these fluctuations in terms of both income and expenses due to the broad scope of their services and their investments in the stock market, analyzing the effect of these fluctuations on their performance, manifested as profitability, is crucial. It is essential for various insurance companies to hedge against these fluctuations to enhance their profitability and prevent a decline in their stock prices and corporate value. Hence, the objective of this research is to analyze the impact of exchange rate volatility on the profitability of insurance companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange in Iran.
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METHODS: The purpose of this research was to analyze the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the profitability of 14 insurance companies that are members of the stock exchange in the period of 2011-2014. In this sense and according to the structure of the data, the panel data method was used and after conducting related tests, the research model was estimated using the random effects method In terms of research method, this study is correlational in nature and content. It utilizes secondary data extracted from the financial statements of insurance companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange to conduct correlation analysis. Its reasoning method is inductive-deductive to discover relationships between variables through correlation. Since correlational research is a subset of descriptive research, this study falls into the descriptive research category. Also, due to its use of past data and statistics related to variables, it is ex-post facto. Structurally, the data is panel data, and considering various methods for such data, the analysis is causal and panel-based. Therefore, this research can be considered applied, utilizing economic theories and regularities;. Data analysis was performed using Eviews software.
The statistical population of the study includes insurance companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. A systematic elimination (screening) sampling method was used to select the statistical sample, meaning from among all companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange.
FINDINGS: The findings showed that exchange rate fluctuations have a negative and significant effect on the profitability of insurance companies according to their type of activity. Also, macro-economic variables such as inflation and growth of share have a positive and significant effect and internal variables of the company such as the ratio of capital to assets and the ratio of debt to assets and the size of the company have also had a positive and significant effect on the profitability of companies
CONCLUSION: The result shows that the adoption of appropriate currency policies to reduce currency fluctuations can have an increasing effect on the performance of insurance companies

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• "Profitability"
• " Insurance Companies"
• "Exchange Rate Fluctuations". "Stock exchange"
• Iran"