نوع مقاله : مقاله انگلیسی برای ویژه‌نامه "تغییر اقلیم و صنعت بیمه"

نویسندگان

• Somaieh Babaei ¹
• shamsolah salami ²
• najmeh molaei ³

¹ PHD of finance at SRBU chief risk and actuarial officer

² Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Natural Disaster Fund

³ Taavon insurance

چکیده

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In recent decades, the global community has witnessed a significant increase in both the intensity and frequency of natural disasters, resulting in catastrophic human and economic losses. Iran, located in a region characterized by high seismic and climatic risks, faces unique challenges in disaster risk management. Conventional disaster management frameworks predominantly emphasize post-disaster recovery, often neglecting proactive risk reduction strategies. Therefore, the integration of modern financial and insurance mechanisms with advanced technological solutions is a strategic necessity. This study aims to perform a comprehensive gap analysis and prioritize disaster risk management strategies in Iran, with a particular focus on incorporating innovations in financial instruments, technology, and governance to address existing operational deficiencies. By evaluating the current infrastructure and operational effectiveness of the Natural Disaster Insurance Fund (NDIF), this research seeks to provide a roadmap for transforming Iran’s disaster management system from a reactive model toward a resilience-oriented, proactive framework.
METHODS: This descriptive-analytical study utilized both qualitative and quantitative approaches. The research framework was operationalized through a self-administered questionnaire consisting of six dimensions and initially 38 indicators. The statistical population comprised 30 experts and specialists from the Natural Disaster Insurance Fund (NDIF), the Climate Research Center, and the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology. Participants were selected using purposive sampling based on their expertise in insurance, disaster risk management, and modern financial instruments. In the first stage, the content validity of the questionnaire was rigorously assessed by field experts, leading to refinement and reduction of the indicators to 35 final items. Internal consistency and reliability were confirmed through Cronbach’s Alpha, yielding a total coefficient of 0.85. Data normality was examined using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which indicated a non-normal distribution; consequently, the non-parametric Binomial Test was employed to verify research hypotheses and assess the suitability of the proposed dimensions. In the subsequent stage, the Full Consistency Method (FUCOM), a modern multi-criteria decision-making tool, was implemented in a Python programming environment. FUCOM was chosen for its superior ability to manage expert judgments with a lower deviation rate compared to traditional methods such as AHP.
FINDINGS: The Binomial Test empirically confirmed all research hypotheses, demonstrating that technological, financial, and governance dimensions are essential and appropriate platforms for advancing natural disaster risk management in Iran. The gap analysis highlighted a dual reality: while conventional reactive approaches and structural/physical infrastructures have reached relative maturity, significant gaps persist in modern risk management domains. Critical deficiencies were identified in the integration of advanced technologies, including Early Warning Systems (EWS) and Big Data analytics, as well as in the financial sector’s utilization of contemporary risk transfer instruments such as Catastrophe Bonds (Cat Bonds) and blockchain-based smart insurance contracts. FUCOM analysis provided precise prioritization of strategic phases, indicating that the "pre-occurrence" or "prevention and preparedness" phase holds absolute priority with a dominant weight of 0.648. This emphasizes the urgent need to transition from a reaction-oriented (ex-post) system to a proactive, risk-oriented (ex-ante) framework. Among the specific indicators, "Blue Resilience and Emergency Water Supply" (C1312) emerged as the highest priority (weight 0.096), followed by "Land Use Planning and Hazard Zoning" (C1311) with a weight of 0.083. The FUCOM model demonstrated exceptional mathematical precision, with a consistency rate (deviation factor) of 0.0018, reinforcing the reliability of these prioritizations for policy-making. Based on these results, a comprehensive conceptual model for natural disaster risk management was developed, structured according to the priorities extracted from FUCOM, highlighting the central role of technological, financial, and governance innovations.
CONCLUSION: This study concludes that the traditional passive role of insurance and financial institutions in Iran is no longer sufficient to cope with the growing risks posed by natural hazards. There is a strategic imperative to redefine the functional role of the Natural Disaster Insurance Fund and other stakeholders, transforming them from mere loss compensators into proactive leaders in risk governance. Institutionalization of technological innovations, such as blockchain to ensure transparency in payments, and the use of Big Data for real-time risk assessment, are essential for this transition. Prioritizing the pre-disaster phase, as highlighted by the FUCOM analysis, will reduce future economic liabilities and significantly enhance national resilience and sustainable development. The findings provide a scientifically validated roadmap for policymakers, emphasizing that proactive, technology-driven, and financially innovative approaches are critical for effective disaster risk reduction in Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• Disaster Risk Management: Natural disasters: Gap analysis: Resilience: Full Consistency Method (FUCOM)

موضوعات

• مدیریت ریسک در صنعت بیمه

عنوان مقاله [English]

Gap Analysis of Novel Financial, Technological, and Governance Tools for natural disaster Risk Management in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

• Somaieh Babaei ¹
• shamsolah salami ²
• najmeh molaei ³

¹ PHD of finance at SRBU chief risk and actuarial officer

² Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Natural Disaster Fund

³ Taavon insurance

چکیده [English]

In recent decades, the global community has witnessed a significant surge in the intensity and frequency of natural disasters, leading to catastrophic human and economic losses. Iran, situated in a region with high seismic and climatic risk, faces unique challenges in mitigating these impacts. Traditional disaster management frameworks often rely on post-disaster recovery rather than proactive risk reduction. Therefore, the development and implementation of modern financial and insurance models integrated with advanced technologies is a vital necessity. This study was conducted with the primary objective of performing a comprehensive gap analysis and prioritizing disaster risk management strategies in Iran. The research specifically emphasizes the integration of financial, technological, and governance innovations to bridge existing operational gaps. By evaluating the current infrastructure of the Natural Disaster Insurance Fund (NDIF), this study seeks to provide a roadmap for transitioning from traditional reactive paradigms to modern, resilience-based systems.
This research is descriptive-analytical, utilizing both qualitative and quantitative data. The research framework was operationalized through a self-administered questionnaire comprising 6 dimensions and 38 initial indicators. The statistical population consisted of 30 experts and specialists from the Natural Disaster Insurance Fund (NDIF), the Climate Research Center, and the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, selected through purposive sampling based on their expertise in insurance, disaster risk management, and modern financial instruments. In the first stage, the content validity of the questionnaire was rigorously evaluated by experts, leading to the refinement of the research tool and a reduction of the questions to 35 final indicators. To ensure internal consistency and reliability of the dimensions, Cronbach's Alpha was calculated, yielding a total value of 0.85. Furthermore, the normality of the data distribution was examined using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Due to the non-normal distribution, the non-parametric Binomial Test was employed to confirm the research hypotheses and determine the suitability of the proposed dimensions. In the subsequent stage, the Full Consistency Method (FUCOM), a modern multi-criteria decision-making tool, was implemented in a Python programming environment. The FUCOM model was selected for its superior ability to manage the subjective judgments of experts with a significantly lower deviation rate compared to traditional methods such as AHP.
The empirical results from the Binomial Test confirmed all research hypotheses and proved that technological, financial, and governance dimensions are entirely appropriate and essential platforms for the evolution of natural disaster risk management in Iran. The gap analysis revealed a clear duality: while the national risk management system has reached relative maturity in conventional reactive approaches and physical/structural infrastructures, it faces "critical gaps" in modern domains. Specifically, the findings emphasize the lack of integration of advanced technologies such as Early Warning Systems (EWS) and Big Data analytics. Moreover, the financial sector faces a significant shortage in employing modern risk transfer instruments, including Catastrophe Bonds (Cat Bonds) and blockchain-based smart insurance contracts.
The use of the FUCOM model provided precise weighting for the strategic phases. Results indicated that the "pre-occurrence" or "prevention and preparedness" phase holds absolute priority with a dominant weight of 0.648. This finding serves as a scientific mandate for an immediate transition from a "reaction-oriented" (ex-post) system to a "risk-oriented" (ex-ante) framework. Among the specific indicators, "Blue Resilience and Emergency Water Supply" (C1312) emerged as the top priority with a weight of 0.096, followed by "Land Use Planning and Hazard Zoning" (C1311) with a weight of 0.083 in second place. The model demonstrated exceptional mathematical precision with a consistency rate (deviation factor) of 0.0018, confirming the reliability of these prioritizations for policy-making.
The integration of these findings led to the development of a comprehensive conceptual model for natural disaster risk management, structured based on the priorities extracted from FUCOM. This study concludes that the traditional and "passive" role of insurance and financial institutions in Iran is no longer sufficient to cope with the challenges posed by increasing natural hazards. There is a strategic necessity to redefine the functional role of the Natural Disaster Insurance Fund and other stakeholders to transform from "mere loss compensators" (passive entities) into "proactive leaders in risk governance" (active entities). This transition requires the institutionalization of technological innovations such as blockchain to guarantee transparency in payments and the utilization of Big Data for real-time risk assessment. Finally, focusing on the pre-disaster phase, as specified by the high weight in the FUCOM analysis, will not only reduce future economic liabilities but also significantly strengthen national resilience and sustainable development.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

• Natural Disasters Risk Management
• Gap Analysis
• Resilience
• Full Consistency Method (FUCOM)