Original Research Paper
A. Komijani; M. Koosheshi; L. Niakan
Abstract
Mortality forecasts are made in two ways: one is indirect forecasting through life expectancy forecasting and then converting it to age-specific death rate, and the second is direct forecasting of mortality rates. In the first approach, it is usually assumed that in the post-transition period (which ...
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Mortality forecasts are made in two ways: one is indirect forecasting through life expectancy forecasting and then converting it to age-specific death rate, and the second is direct forecasting of mortality rates. In the first approach, it is usually assumed that in the post-transition period (which is usually a level higher than 70 years for life expectancy at birth), the increase in life expectancy slows down, and as it approaches the exponential, its increase will be insignificant. In the second approach, the age-specific death rate is predicted and the life expectancy is obtained using the direct method of building the life table. As a rule, the logical and correct method of estimating or predicting life expectancy is the second approach. In addition, the indirect method has difficulties and generally larger errors. The purpose of this article is to use the second approach, and in this direction, using Iran's mortality data, the Lee-Carter model is used to predict the mortality rate. This model is based on two main elements: one is time and the other is age. The strict and important assumption of the model is the relative stability of the age-of-death pattern, and various evaluations have shown that in these conditions, the error of the Lee-Carter model is lower than any other method for directly predicting the mortality rate. In the case of Iran, the estimates show that the estimation error is insignificant, although this element is higher in some ages. Testing the hypothesis of the stability of Iran's mortality age pattern is an assumption that can be the subject of further research.
Original Research Paper
M. Mohammadi
Abstract
In order to expand the demand for insurance in all disciplines, it is necessary to know the conditions and status of information distribution and the issues arising from it; For example, regarding life insurance, the need to understand adverse selection is unavoidable in order to avoid low pricing and ...
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In order to expand the demand for insurance in all disciplines, it is necessary to know the conditions and status of information distribution and the issues arising from it; For example, regarding life insurance, the need to understand adverse selection is unavoidable in order to avoid low pricing and increase the risk of insurer bankruptcy. In this research, we have investigated this phenomenon by using the data of life insurance policyholders of an insurance company. According to the theory of Ratchchild-Stiglitz about the separating equilibrium, high-risk insurers seek full coverage with a fair premium, and low-risk insurers seek an insurance contract with incomplete coverage and a lower (and fair) premium. Based on this, by using Evioz software and the amount of reduction in full life insurance coverage (decrease in death capital), influencing variables on the risk level of policyholders (death risk) were intuitively identified. Finally, by calculating the risk index using significant variables (variables increasing the level of risk with a positive sign and variables decreasing the level of risk with a negative sign) and examining the significance of the relationship between the annual premium as an indicator of the demand for life insurance and the estimated risk index, the hypothesis of the existence of adverse selection It was approved in life insurance.
Original Research Paper
S. Sarbazalipour; A. Fallah
Abstract
In this article, a new probabilistic model is proposed to optimize the portfolio of assets based on the insurer's obligations. Unlike other existing models, the proposed model takes into account the randomness of the amount paid and received from policyholders and the return on assets. In order to evaluate ...
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In this article, a new probabilistic model is proposed to optimize the portfolio of assets based on the insurer's obligations. Unlike other existing models, the proposed model takes into account the randomness of the amount paid and received from policyholders and the return on assets. In order to evaluate the proposed model and compare it with the well-known model of Markowitz (1952), a simulation study has been designed and implemented to optimize the portfolio of assets. Also, to show the effectiveness of the proposed model in the real world, the data related to the global price of gold and iron ore have been used. The results indicate the acceptable efficiency of the proposed model, so that the amount of return and risk of assets during the investment period is more favorable for the proposed model.
Original Research Paper
M.R. Abbasi; A. Ebrahimpour; M. Ameli
Abstract
Today, in the business world, senior managers have recognized that customers are the central core of commercial activities and the success of organizations and companies depends on the effectiveness of the image presented to customers of the organization and its products. The importance of this is doubled ...
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Today, in the business world, senior managers have recognized that customers are the central core of commercial activities and the success of organizations and companies depends on the effectiveness of the image presented to customers of the organization and its products. The importance of this is doubled when in a strategic industry such as the insurance industry, with the intensification of competition and the increase in the number of market participants, the issue of choosing the right brand name strategy is raised more and more. The purpose of this research is to identify success factors in the establishment of brand name management in relation to the customer's dual reactions. The current research method is practical in terms of purpose and descriptive-survey in terms of data collection method. The results of the research, obtained through structural equation modeling, showed that the relative priority in the constituent elements of brand equity is brand loyalty, and price is the most important determining factor in the choice of insurers.
Original Research Paper
A.R. Shirani; S. Sehat; F. Tomzar
Abstract
The current research is based on the hypothesis that deregulation as a change factor or independent variable has an effect on the organizational structure of insurance companies as a dependent variable. The findings of the research are the result of a study that was conducted according to the views of ...
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The current research is based on the hypothesis that deregulation as a change factor or independent variable has an effect on the organizational structure of insurance companies as a dependent variable. The findings of the research are the result of a study that was conducted according to the views of 168 people from all managers and assistants of the central branches of private insurance companies in Tehran with at least 5 years of insurance experience. Data analysis was done using the process of analysis of covariance structures (structural equation modeling) and confirmatory factor analysis, and the parametric test of the comparison of correlated groups was used. The results show that after deregulation, the organizational structure of insurance companies will change and will be more formal and focused. In fact, after deregulation, the organizational structure of insurance companies becomes more mechanical.
Original Research Paper
M. Gharakhani; Z. Majedi
Abstract
In this article, the asset risk of insurance institutions is investigated in two sectors of investment in the stock exchange and real estate. To calculate the risk of investing in stocks, the daily data of the total price index of the Tehran Stock Exchange and Securities Market for the years 2014-2018 ...
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In this article, the asset risk of insurance institutions is investigated in two sectors of investment in the stock exchange and real estate. To calculate the risk of investing in stocks, the daily data of the total price index of the Tehran Stock Exchange and Securities Market for the years 2014-2018 have been used. Also, to calculate the risk of investing in real estate, the monthly data of the rental housing rent index in the urban areas of Iran for the years 2010-2018 have been used.In this article, the characteristics of the data distribution have been identified and the amount of value at risk has been estimated. In order to check the quality of the estimates made, the data from 2018-2019 was used to perform a retrospective test, which showed that the EGARCH model had high accuracy and performance compared to other methods. Also, in the investigation, it has been determined that there is a calendar effect in the market and by adjusting this effect, the value at risk will decrease by 23%.
Original Research Paper
M. Amin Fard; H. Zardrang Koshki
Abstract
As an independent contract, the life insurance contract is subject to the general rules of contracts and is free from jurisprudential and legal obstacles. Shia jurists have accepted the life insurance contract as a legitimate and independent contract due to the general inclusion of proofs of the validity ...
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As an independent contract, the life insurance contract is subject to the general rules of contracts and is free from jurisprudential and legal obstacles. Shia jurists have accepted the life insurance contract as a legitimate and independent contract due to the general inclusion of proofs of the validity of the contracts and the fact that the contracts are not limited to specific formats and also free from jurisprudential obstacles such as usury, gambling, gharar and suspension, although they believe that this The contract can be concluded in the form of these contracts due to the compliance with some specific contracts, such as peace, gift in compensation and mudarabah. In this article, in order to analyze the juridical and legal nature of the life insurance contract, this contract has been compared with certain similar contracts and the independence of this contract as a valid and permissible contract has been examined.
Original Research Paper
J. Yadollahi Farsi; A.R. Daghighi Asli; V. Nazmi Sharamin
Abstract
The current research was conducted with the aim of designing a model for evaluating entrepreneurial opportunities in life insurance and using a mixed method. In the qualitative phase, semi-structured interviews were conducted with experts from both the executive and academic departments of the country's ...
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The current research was conducted with the aim of designing a model for evaluating entrepreneurial opportunities in life insurance and using a mixed method. In the qualitative phase, semi-structured interviews were conducted with experts from both the executive and academic departments of the country's life insurance industry. These interviews were analyzed in three stages of open, central and selective coding, and finally 36 criteria were identified in the central coding stage. These criteria are divided into 8 factors: "Human resources and existing and required executive capabilities", "Product", "Target market and targeted demographic groups", "Laws and regulations and executive infrastructure", "Strength and threat level of competitors", "Profitability level of opportunities" Identified", "obstacles to entering the life insurance market", "ambiguity and lack of transparency in the life insurance market" were placed. The aforementioned criteria were designed in the form of a questionnaire and distributed among the life insurance managers of the main branches of selected insurance companies in Tehran, and a total of 87 questionnaires were collected. The reliability of the questionnaire was measured using Cronbach's alpha test, and the alpha statistic was evaluated as 0.93. In the analysis of quantitative data, the factor analysis method was used, some criteria were removed and the "entrepreneurial strategy" factor was added to the factors, and a model based on 9 factors was designed. Based on the results of the research, the profitability of the identified opportunities, product and human resources and existing and required executive capabilities are the most important factors in evaluating entrepreneurial opportunities in life insurance.
