Document Type : Original Research Paper
Authors
1 Department of Actuarial Science, University of Qom, Qom, Iran
2 Department of Actuarial Science, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
In this article, the asset risk of insurance institutions is investigated in two sectors of investment in the stock exchange and real estate. To calculate the risk of investing in stocks, the daily data of the total price index of the Tehran Stock Exchange and Securities Market for the years 2014-2018 have been used. Also, to calculate the risk of investing in real estate, the monthly data of the rental housing rent index in the urban areas of Iran for the years 2010-2018 have been used.
In this article, the characteristics of the data distribution have been identified and the amount of value at risk has been estimated. In order to check the quality of the estimates made, the data from 2018-2019 was used to perform a retrospective test, which showed that the EGARCH model had high accuracy and performance compared to other methods. Also, in the investigation, it has been determined that there is a calendar effect in the market and by adjusting this effect, the value at risk will decrease by 23%.
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