Document Type : Original Research Paper
Authors
Department of Insurance Statistics, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Considering the importance of accurate modeling and forecasting of mortality rate in many decisions in the field of demography and statistical insurance, in this article, for the first time, the ability of singular value set analysis method (a non-parametric method in time series analysis) in modeling and forecasting the rate We will pay death.
This review is based on comparing the results of this method with several members of one of the most famous and widely used families in this field, known as Lee-Carter. So far, several articles have been presented regarding the capability of the single value set analysis method in modeling and forecasting many time series; This work will be another attempt to investigate another capability of this method in modeling and predicting mortality rate.
From the investigations, it can be concluded that in many cases, the singular value set analysis method is more accurate than the studied members of the Lee-Carter family; Therefore, due to the non-parametric nature of this method, if its other theoretical aspects are expanded, it can be used as a powerful method in modeling and predicting the mortality rate.
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