Document Type : Original Research Paper
Authors
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Zabol University, Sistan and Baluchistan, Iran
2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University, Fars, Iran
3 Department of Agricultural Economics and Planning Research, University of Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Agricultural activities in the Sistan region are completely dependent on the water of the Hirmand River. The water of the Hirmand River has fluctuated greatly, so that in the past years, the people of the region have always suffered from terrible floods and continuous droughts. The purpose of this research is to introduce and analyze different river flow insurance plans as one of the solutions to reduce the income fluctuations of farmers in Sistan region. In this research, first, the stochastic process of Hirmand river flow was simulated by Capiola method for two growing seasons using the monthly information of Hirmand river flow from 1336-1388. Then, using planning, econometric and simulation techniques, the relationship between the amount of water available to farmers and their gross profit was estimated. Finally, by presenting different river flow insurance plans in the model, the effects of these plans in reducing the risk of farmers' gross profit were analyzed. The research results showed that the use of different insurance schemes can be effective in reducing the fluctuations of farmers' gross profit.
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