Estimating the probability and analyzing the continuity of optional insurance payment in the social security organization with the Markov chain approach (Case study: Hamedan social security two branch)

Baradaran, V.; Habashi, M.

doi:10.22056/ijir.2016.01.06

Document Type : Original Research Paper

Authors

Department of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University, North Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22056/ijir.2016.01.06

Abstract

Proper planning is necessary for the development of social security services, accurate estimation of the income from receiving insurance premiums, predicting the behavior of insurance payers, especially optional insurance payers, and planning for their maintenance. In this research, the behavior of discretionary insurers has been modeled in the form of Markov chain system to calculate the probability of changing their status. The situations of insurance payers before and after the conclusion of the contract have been identified by collecting and studying the data of this type of insurance payers in Hamedan Social Security Branch Two between 1386 and 1393 in seven situations. In an analysis, the status of each insurance payer in the year after the conclusion of the contract has been categorized into two statuses of continuity and non-continuity, and their transfer probabilities have been calculated with the case study data. Markov analysis shows that with a probability of 78.01%, an optional insurer will continue to pay premiums in the coming years and will turn away from this type of insurance with a probability of about 22%. Based on this, a relationship has been developed to predict the number of optional insurance payers at the end of each year. In another analysis, the probability that a voluntary insurance payer will tend to what state of insurance payment or non-insurance payment after turning away from voluntary insurance is also estimated with Markov chains

Keywords

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Iranian Journal of Insurance Research

Estimating the probability and analyzing the continuity of optional insurance payment in the social security organization with the Markov chain approach (Case study: Hamedan social security two branch)

Letters to Editor

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Volume 5, Issue 1 - Serial Number 15
January 2016
Pages 63-74

Estimating the probability and analyzing the continuity of optional insurance payment in the social security organization with the Markov chain approach (Case study: Hamedan social security two branch)

Letters to Editor

Send comment about this article

Volume 5, Issue 1 - Serial Number 15January 2016Pages 63-74

Volume 5, Issue 1 - Serial Number 15
January 2016
Pages 63-74