Identifying and Analyzing Drivers Affecting the Insurance Industry

Hosseinzadeh, Mohammad; Safa, Mojgan; Maleki, Mohammad Hasan; Borhani, Seyyed Abbas

doi:10.22056/ijir.2025.03.02

Document Type : Original Research Paper

Authors

¹ Phd student,Department of finance, Faculty of Market and Business, Qom Branch ,Islamic Azad University, Qom, Iran

² Assistant Professor, Department of Accounting, Faculty of Market and Business, Qom Branch,Islamic Azad University, Qom, Iran

³ Professor, Department of Business Administration, Faculty of management and accounting,University of Qom, Qom, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22056/ijir.2025.03.02

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The insurance industry, as one of the fundamental pillars of a country's financial system, plays a vital role in ensuring economic stability, reducing unpredictable risks, and supporting both individual and collective investments. Through the provision of diverse insurance services, this industry has created a suitable platform for mitigating the impacts of incidents and hazards, and as such, it has consistently been recognized as an effective instrument in enhancing the economic resilience of societies. However, in recent decades, the insurance industry—both globally and particularly in Iran—has faced extensive transformations, primarily driven by environmental, technological, economic, social, and institutional factors. The emergence of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things (IoT), big data, and blockchain, along with shifts in consumer behavior, the rise of insur-techs as emerging market players, and the introduction of new regulatory requirements and frameworks, have contributed to an increasingly complex and uncertain outlook for the industry's future. In this context, identifying and analyzing the key driving forces that influence the future of the insurance industry and prioritizing them has become an essential requirement for formulating strategic policies and designing effective, future-oriented scenarios. The main objective of this study is to identify, analyze, and prioritize the key drivers shaping the future of Iran’s insurance industry, with a focus on potential opportunities and challenges to present an evidence-based picture of the trends influencing the industry's trajectory.
METHODS: The research adopted an applied approach in terms of its objective. Methodologically, it was quantitative and forward-looking (prospective). To achieve the research goals, a combination of two quantitative methods was employed: the Fuzzy Delphi method and the MARCOS multi-criteria decision-making method. This study was designed and conducted in three sequential stages.
FINDINGS: In the initial stage, an exhaustive list of driving forces affecting the future of the insurance industry was compiled. This was achieved through a comperensive review of prior reseach, analysis of insurance industry reports, and structured interviews with key experts. In this phase, 33 distinct drivers were identified and systematically categorized into seven principal groups: economic, socio-cultural, technological, environmental, legal, governance-related, and structural. In the subsequent stage, the Fuzzy Delphi method was utilized to effectively screen and pinpoint the most critical drivers. A questionnaire, rigorously designed based on fuzzy logic, was developed and disseminated to a carefully selected panel of experts. The participants in this phase comprised three primary stakeholder groups within the insurance industry: senior managers and specialists from insurance companies, expert consultants in insurance and technology, and academic faculty members with research backgrounds in futures studies. A purposive and judgmental sampling strategy was employed, with selection criteria encompassing subject-matter expertise, parrentinent professional experience, and a deep familiarity with future-oriented trends in the insurance sector. Following a meticulous analysis of the fuzzy data collected from expert opinions, eight of the initial 33 drivers were conclusively identified as the most critical forces influencing the future of the insurance industry, based on their demonstrated high impact and significant levels of uncertainty. In the final stage, these eight key drivers underwent further evaluation and systematic prioritization using the MARCOS multi-criteria decision-making technique. The results unequivocally revealed four top-priority drivers: first, collaboration models between insurance companies and insurtechs: These models are pivotal for enhancing innovation and efficiency through the synergy of technological capabilities and traditional resources. second, the extent of big data utilization and data-driven analytics: This involves its application to both strategic decision-making and the innovative design of insurance products. third, the pervasive penetration of emerging fourth-generation technologies: This includes technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT) into daily life and business operations, leading to fundamental transformations in risk assessment, pricing mechanisms, and post-sale services. Fourth, regulatory policies and frameworks in the field of technology: These policies play a decisive role in either facilitating or impeding innovation within the industry. Due to their profound transformative nature, these drivers are of paramount strategic importance for scenario planning and must be meticulously considered in shaping the future trajectory of the insurance industry.
CONCLUSION: Based on the research findings, several practical recommendations were proposed to capitalize on upcoming opportunities and address potential challenges. These suggestions are based on the focus group interview method: developing collaborative platforms between traditional insurance companies and insurtechs to enhance innovation and agility; making effective investments in information technology infrastructure and advanced data analytics; formulating and implementing educational policies to improve digital literacy among policyholders and employees; and revising laws and regulations in a way that not only supports technological innovation but also safeguards the rights and interests of policyholders. By presenting a roadmap of the key driving forces shaping the future of Iran's insurance industry, this study offers a solid foundation for strategic decision-making, scenario-based planning, and enhancing the preparedness of policymakers, managers, and other stakeholders in the face of forthcoming changes.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Future research in the insurance industry

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Iranian Journal of Insurance Research

Identifying and Analyzing Drivers Affecting the Insurance Industry

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Volume 14, Issue 3 - Serial Number 53
May 2025
Pages 193-208

Identifying and Analyzing Drivers Affecting the Insurance Industry

References

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Letters to Editor

Send comment about this article

Volume 14, Issue 3 - Serial Number 53May 2025Pages 193-208

Volume 14, Issue 3 - Serial Number 53
May 2025
Pages 193-208