Document Type : Original Research Paper
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Abstract
Objective: The insurance industry is one of the important components of the financial industry in the economy of countries. However, this industry is facing many challenges and opportunities under the influence of external factors. The current research seeks to identify and prioritize the future drivers of the insurance industry from the perspective of opportunities and challenges.
Method: The present research is an applied study from the point of view of orientation and it is quantitative research in terms of methodology due to the use of multiple quantitative methods. The theoretical population of the research was managers and consultants of the insurance industry and faculty members specializing in the field of futurology. Sampling was done in a judgmental manner and based on expertise about the future of the insurance industry. The most important tools of data collection in this research were: expert questionnaire and priority questionnaire. Expert evaluation questionnaires were evaluated with fuzzy Delphi method and priority evaluation questionnaires were evaluated with Marcos technique.
Findings: The present research was conducted in three stages. In the first step, the future drivers of the insurance industry were extracted from the perspective of challenges and opportunities through reviewing literature analysis and structured interviews with experts. 33 drivers were obtained in this stage, which were classified into seven main categories: economic, socio-cultural, technological, environmental, legal, governance and structural. In the second step, these drivers were screened by distribution of expert questionnaires and fuzzy Delphi method. Eight drivers were in favorable condition in terms of defuzzified number and were selected for final prioritization. In the third step, priority drivers were evaluated by Marcos method. The priority drivers were: the cooperation patterns of insurtechs with the insurance industry, the extent of using data-driven analytics using big data in the insurance industry, the extent of penetration of fourth generation technologies such as the Internet of Things in businesses and people's lives, and technology regulatory policies in the country.
Results: Practical research suggestions were developed based on priority drivers. Some of these suggestions were: developing strategic and long-term cooperation between insurance companies and insurtechs, strengthening the infrastructure of data-driven and digital technologies in the insurance industry, and strengthening balanced, fair and comprehensive regulation in the financial industry.
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